North Koreans Said to Be Near a Missile Test
North Koreans Said to Be Near a Missile Test
By HELENE COOPER and MICHAEL R. GORDON
WASHINGTON, June 18 — North Korea appears to have completed fueling a long-range ballistic missile, American officials said Sunday, a move that greatly increases the probability that it will go ahead with its first important test launching in eight years.
A senior American official said that intelligence from satellite photographs suggested that booster rockets had been loaded onto a launching pad, and liquid-fuel tanks fitted to a missile at a site on North Korea's remote east coast.
While there have been steady reports in recent days about preparations for a test, fueling is regarded as a critical step as well as a probable bellwether of North Korea's intentions. Siphoning the liquid fuel out of a missile is a complex undertaking.
"Yes, looks like all systems are 'go' and fueling appears to be done," said the official who discussed the matter only after being promised anonymity because he was addressing delicate diplomatic and intelligence issues. A second senior official, who declined to speak on the record for similar reasons, also indicated that the United States believed the missile had been fueled.
A launching would be a milestone in the North's missile capacity and effectively scrap a moratorium on such tests declared by the North Koreans after their last test in 1998. Moreover, a launching would have enormous importance for American security because it would be North Korea's first flight test of a new long-range missile that might eventually have the capacity to strike the United States.
A launching could also ignite a political chain reaction in Japan, the United States and China, which have been trying to re-engage North Korea in stalled talks about its nuclear weapons program. The Bush administration might step up financing for missile defense; Japan might increase its missile defense efforts as well, while militant Japanese politicians might push to reconsider the nation's nuclear weapons options. Such moves would most likely alienate China.
The reported fueling of the missile has set off a flurry of diplomatic activity, as officials from the United States, Japan and China worked furiously to try to forestall a launching. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice spoke to her Japanese and Chinese counterparts this weekend, urging the Chinese, in particular, to try to press North Korea. Officials at the State Department recently telephoned North Korean diplomats at that country's permanent mission to the United Nations in New York, warning them directly against going ahead with a launching. Such direct contact is highly unusual, since American officials limit their direct talks with their North Korean counterparts. But "we needed to make sure there was no misunderstanding," a senior American official said.
American intelligence officials say they believe that the system is a Taepodong 2 missile and that a three-stage version could strike all of the United States. One administration official said the missile at the launching pad was a two-stage version.
While North Korea claims to have developed nuclear weapons, it has never allowed outsiders to see them. American experts believe that North Korea has enough plutonium for at least half a dozen nuclear weapons and has produced a small but growing nuclear arsenal. It is not known if the North Koreans can build a nuclear warhead small enough to fit on a missile, but experts say it seems plausible that they could do so.
"Assuming the missile is a Taepodong 2 and assuming the missile test is successful, North Korea would demonstrate that they have made important progress toward the ability to hit targets in the continental United States with a missile large enough to carry a nuclear weapon," said Gary Samore, a former senior aide on the National Security Council and a vice president of the MacArthur Foundation.
It remained unclear late on Sunday how long North Korea might wait before launching a fueled missile, what the diplomatic prospects were for averting a launching, or what the missile's intended landing spot or projected range might be.
In Japan, Foreign Minister Taro Aso warned that a miscalculation could result in the missile landing on Japanese territory. "If it is dropped on Japan, it will complicate the story," he told Japanese TV on Sunday. "It will be regarded as an attack." Mr. Aso later toned down his language, saying, "We will not right away view it as a military act," but adding that Japan would seek an immediate meeting of the Security Council if the missile were launched.
In its last test of a long-range missile, in 1998, North Korea fired a Taepodong 1 missile over Japan — a launching that the Clinton administration had warned against to no avail. American intelligence was surprised to learn when the missile was launched that it had three stages, although the solid-fueled third stage exploded in flight. That led Congress to step up its push for deployment of antimissile defenses. In 1999, North Korea agreed to a moratorium on long-range missile testing, and has not fired one since.
But five weeks ago American officials received satellite images that showed North Korea preparing to test a multiple-stage Taepodong 2 missile. Some Bush administration officials suspected that the moves were a grab for attention while Washington's focus was primarily on Iran's nuclear intentions, and a way to press the United States to agree to direct talks. But since then, diplomats have become increasingly concerned that North Korea indeed planned to conduct a launching.
"Why they are doing this, you will have to ask them," one senior Bush administration official said Sunday. "It is not in anyone's interest; certainly not theirs. For our part, we will not be derailed by their temper tantrums, nor have any of our own."
Referring to the deadlocked six-party talks about North Korea's nuclear program, the official said: "We'll continue to be guided by our policy of protecting our people and of working closely, very closely with our partners in the six parties. It is important in times like this not to give any mixed signals and to be firm and clear. We support the six-party process as the best means to solve what should be clear to all is a multilateral problem."
American knowledge about the Taepodong 2 is limited. In 2001, a National Intelligence Estimate forecast that a three-stage version of it could reach North America with a sizable payload. The first stage of the Taepodong 2 is thought to consist of a cluster of Nodong missiles, which are single-stage, shorter-range rockets; the second stage is believed to be a Nodong missile. A third stage would probably be a solid-fueled system.
There was no mention of a missile in a report from North Korea's official media on a national meeting on Sunday, according to news service reports from the region. At the meeting, officials talked about increasing the North's "military deterrent" — a phrase used by the country to refer to its nuclear program. North Korea contends it needs the program for a defense against a possible American attack; the United States says it has no intention of invading.
American analysts say that if a missile launching occurs it is possible that North Korea will describe it as part of a peaceful program to put satellites in orbit. North Korea is a secretive Stalinist state, and figuring out the motives of its leader, Kim Jong Il, has stymied diplomats for years. "It may well be that Kim Jong Il is getting a lot of pressure from his generals to verify the design" of the Taepodong 2 missile, said Robert J. Einhorn, a former assistant secretary of state for nonproliferation under President Bill Clinton.
But, he added, "Whenever the North Koreans act up, one has to assume in part at least that they are trying to get the world's attention."
Just two weeks ago — a day after the United States offered to hold direct talks with Iran over its nuclear program — North Korea invited Christopher R. Hill, an assistant secretary of state and chief negotiator on the North's nuclear weapons program, for direct talks in Pyongyang. That offer was rebuffed by the White House, which insisted that the North return to the long-deadlocked six-nation talks. The other nations involved in the talks are China, South Korea, Japan and Russia.
North Korea has boycotted the talks in recent months after the United States cracked down on financial institutions that dealt with the government in Pyongyang, and with North Korean companies suspected of counterfeiting American dollars and laundering money. If North Korea goes ahead with a launching, the already floundering talks would go into the deep freeze.
David E. Sanger contributed reporting for this article.
By HELENE COOPER and MICHAEL R. GORDON
WASHINGTON, June 18 — North Korea appears to have completed fueling a long-range ballistic missile, American officials said Sunday, a move that greatly increases the probability that it will go ahead with its first important test launching in eight years.
A senior American official said that intelligence from satellite photographs suggested that booster rockets had been loaded onto a launching pad, and liquid-fuel tanks fitted to a missile at a site on North Korea's remote east coast.
While there have been steady reports in recent days about preparations for a test, fueling is regarded as a critical step as well as a probable bellwether of North Korea's intentions. Siphoning the liquid fuel out of a missile is a complex undertaking.
"Yes, looks like all systems are 'go' and fueling appears to be done," said the official who discussed the matter only after being promised anonymity because he was addressing delicate diplomatic and intelligence issues. A second senior official, who declined to speak on the record for similar reasons, also indicated that the United States believed the missile had been fueled.
A launching would be a milestone in the North's missile capacity and effectively scrap a moratorium on such tests declared by the North Koreans after their last test in 1998. Moreover, a launching would have enormous importance for American security because it would be North Korea's first flight test of a new long-range missile that might eventually have the capacity to strike the United States.
A launching could also ignite a political chain reaction in Japan, the United States and China, which have been trying to re-engage North Korea in stalled talks about its nuclear weapons program. The Bush administration might step up financing for missile defense; Japan might increase its missile defense efforts as well, while militant Japanese politicians might push to reconsider the nation's nuclear weapons options. Such moves would most likely alienate China.
The reported fueling of the missile has set off a flurry of diplomatic activity, as officials from the United States, Japan and China worked furiously to try to forestall a launching. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice spoke to her Japanese and Chinese counterparts this weekend, urging the Chinese, in particular, to try to press North Korea. Officials at the State Department recently telephoned North Korean diplomats at that country's permanent mission to the United Nations in New York, warning them directly against going ahead with a launching. Such direct contact is highly unusual, since American officials limit their direct talks with their North Korean counterparts. But "we needed to make sure there was no misunderstanding," a senior American official said.
American intelligence officials say they believe that the system is a Taepodong 2 missile and that a three-stage version could strike all of the United States. One administration official said the missile at the launching pad was a two-stage version.
While North Korea claims to have developed nuclear weapons, it has never allowed outsiders to see them. American experts believe that North Korea has enough plutonium for at least half a dozen nuclear weapons and has produced a small but growing nuclear arsenal. It is not known if the North Koreans can build a nuclear warhead small enough to fit on a missile, but experts say it seems plausible that they could do so.
"Assuming the missile is a Taepodong 2 and assuming the missile test is successful, North Korea would demonstrate that they have made important progress toward the ability to hit targets in the continental United States with a missile large enough to carry a nuclear weapon," said Gary Samore, a former senior aide on the National Security Council and a vice president of the MacArthur Foundation.
It remained unclear late on Sunday how long North Korea might wait before launching a fueled missile, what the diplomatic prospects were for averting a launching, or what the missile's intended landing spot or projected range might be.
In Japan, Foreign Minister Taro Aso warned that a miscalculation could result in the missile landing on Japanese territory. "If it is dropped on Japan, it will complicate the story," he told Japanese TV on Sunday. "It will be regarded as an attack." Mr. Aso later toned down his language, saying, "We will not right away view it as a military act," but adding that Japan would seek an immediate meeting of the Security Council if the missile were launched.
In its last test of a long-range missile, in 1998, North Korea fired a Taepodong 1 missile over Japan — a launching that the Clinton administration had warned against to no avail. American intelligence was surprised to learn when the missile was launched that it had three stages, although the solid-fueled third stage exploded in flight. That led Congress to step up its push for deployment of antimissile defenses. In 1999, North Korea agreed to a moratorium on long-range missile testing, and has not fired one since.
But five weeks ago American officials received satellite images that showed North Korea preparing to test a multiple-stage Taepodong 2 missile. Some Bush administration officials suspected that the moves were a grab for attention while Washington's focus was primarily on Iran's nuclear intentions, and a way to press the United States to agree to direct talks. But since then, diplomats have become increasingly concerned that North Korea indeed planned to conduct a launching.
"Why they are doing this, you will have to ask them," one senior Bush administration official said Sunday. "It is not in anyone's interest; certainly not theirs. For our part, we will not be derailed by their temper tantrums, nor have any of our own."
Referring to the deadlocked six-party talks about North Korea's nuclear program, the official said: "We'll continue to be guided by our policy of protecting our people and of working closely, very closely with our partners in the six parties. It is important in times like this not to give any mixed signals and to be firm and clear. We support the six-party process as the best means to solve what should be clear to all is a multilateral problem."
American knowledge about the Taepodong 2 is limited. In 2001, a National Intelligence Estimate forecast that a three-stage version of it could reach North America with a sizable payload. The first stage of the Taepodong 2 is thought to consist of a cluster of Nodong missiles, which are single-stage, shorter-range rockets; the second stage is believed to be a Nodong missile. A third stage would probably be a solid-fueled system.
There was no mention of a missile in a report from North Korea's official media on a national meeting on Sunday, according to news service reports from the region. At the meeting, officials talked about increasing the North's "military deterrent" — a phrase used by the country to refer to its nuclear program. North Korea contends it needs the program for a defense against a possible American attack; the United States says it has no intention of invading.
American analysts say that if a missile launching occurs it is possible that North Korea will describe it as part of a peaceful program to put satellites in orbit. North Korea is a secretive Stalinist state, and figuring out the motives of its leader, Kim Jong Il, has stymied diplomats for years. "It may well be that Kim Jong Il is getting a lot of pressure from his generals to verify the design" of the Taepodong 2 missile, said Robert J. Einhorn, a former assistant secretary of state for nonproliferation under President Bill Clinton.
But, he added, "Whenever the North Koreans act up, one has to assume in part at least that they are trying to get the world's attention."
Just two weeks ago — a day after the United States offered to hold direct talks with Iran over its nuclear program — North Korea invited Christopher R. Hill, an assistant secretary of state and chief negotiator on the North's nuclear weapons program, for direct talks in Pyongyang. That offer was rebuffed by the White House, which insisted that the North return to the long-deadlocked six-nation talks. The other nations involved in the talks are China, South Korea, Japan and Russia.
North Korea has boycotted the talks in recent months after the United States cracked down on financial institutions that dealt with the government in Pyongyang, and with North Korean companies suspected of counterfeiting American dollars and laundering money. If North Korea goes ahead with a launching, the already floundering talks would go into the deep freeze.
David E. Sanger contributed reporting for this article.
posted by shummer60 at Monday, June 19, 2006
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