Grave Situation in Mideast
On the eve of President Obama’s Mideast Peace Conference, unfolding events by Israel’s enemies strongly suggests that an outbreak of war is imminent, perhaps within hours or days. The following information provides our readers with an overall grasp of the extremely heavy gravity of the situation.
On Monday (8/30) the Hezbollah leadership under Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah issued a “State of War Alert” to all Hezbollah militia forces. Syria is also reportedly on its highest state of alert. The alert status is reminiscent of the situation just hours prior to the start of the war in June of 1967 known more often as “The Six Day War.”
On June 4, 1967, Arab leaders of Egypt, Syria and Jordan gave final approval for plans to launch sneak attacks against Israel. Those attack plans called for surprise air strikes by Arab war planes to begin the following morning of June 5. Israeli leaders, having caught wind of the plans launched their own pre-emptive strike catching the Arab air forces on the ground by surprise at the same time as Israeli ground forces launched a sneak ground campaign against its Arab neighbors. The result was a smashing victory for Israel, which included Israel gaining possession of all of Jerusalem, as well as the Sinai Peninsula, the Jordanian West Bank and Syria’s Golan Heights region.
As the first day of September 2010 rolled around, Israel finds itself in an eerily similar situation except that the identities of the key enemy antagonists have changed somewhat.
Syria remains in the roster of Israel’s enemy combatants but Jordan and Egypt have developed peaceful, even modestly cordial relationships. However, the primary protagonists for this latest crisis are Iran and her proxy forces of Lebanese Hezbollah militia and Hamas terrorists in the Gaza Strip.
According to various Western, U.S., Arab and Israeli intelligence reports, Hezbollah has been making final preparations for a large-scale sneak-attack against Israel. The only questions now amongst informed analysts revolve around the “when” and “where” of the expected attacks. As to the start date for the attacks, we understand Israel’s enemies are considering to optional timing dates. Plans under consideration include a launch date of not long after the opening ceremonies in Washington for the new peace conference whereby Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority Chairman Abbas will meet face to face to start peace talk negotiations under the sponsorship of President Obama.
Many sources out of the Mideast hypothesize that a surprise attack could come late Thursday evening or perhaps more likely on Friday, September 2, 2010. Why Friday?
Friday is the last day of Ramadan which concludes with a festive, celebratory feast that ends the holy period of Ramadan. It is also known as “International al Qods Day” or “Jerusalem Day.” It is a day of Islamic solidarity with the Palestinian people in their quest to secure Islamic control over all of Jerusalem. This day of consecration to that endeavor was conceived originally by the leader of Iran's Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. It is part of Iran’s master plan to be the leading nation of the Islamic world.
A-O Readers should note that an attack by Iran’s proxy forces in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip on al-Qods Day would seem very much appropriate to that day. The real question is whether the attack would technically begin during the day, before Ramadan’s final feast at night or in the twilight hours of the feast or shortly thereafter. Technically by Islamic law, no military endeavors should be permitted during any point of the Ramadan period. No doubt, Iranian clerics could find a loophole excuse for a sneak attack as early as the night before or during the pre-dawn hours of “al Qods Day.” Such an attack would be viewed as a holy consecration to the task of retaking Jerusalem from Israel as well as destroying Israel. It would likely be viewed as the opening day of a war that Islamists would hope to conclude by the Jewish holy days of Rosh Hashanah (9/8/10) and Yom Kippur (9/18/10).
2nd Optional Attack Date:
The second optional time point for launching a sneak attack against Israel would be on the eve of Rosh Hashanah which begins on the evening of September 8, 2010. This date marks the end of a 62 year period since the UN declared a homeland for the Jews back in November of 1947. Some Bible prophecy watchers suggest that this coincides with the Prophet Daniel’s prediction of a 63 year period that precedes a 7 year period of Tribulation. It should be noted that from this year of Rosh Hashanah forward for three and a half years would see “signs” in the heavens – namely lunar and solar eclipses during Jewish holy days in 2014 and 2015 including Passover. Such astronomical events are perceived by some as coming fulfillments of Biblical prophecies relating to signs in the sun and the moon.
While we find these timing hypotheses to be highly intriguing but we prefer to not make dogmatic assertions that such coming events are indeed to the “the” prophetic fulfillments of those prophecies, but we do admit to such possibilities.
Now returning our focus to unfolding events of the past few days, let’s look further at what has recently transpired that suggests an imminent attack by Israel’s enemies.
Indicator #1.= Israeli Troop Deployments
First of all, there are numerous reports from within the Islamic media outlets of the Middle East claiming that Israel has deployed an additional full armored division along Israel’s northern border with Lebanon and Syria.
Indicator #2. = Iranian – Hezbollah War Councils
U.S., Western and Israeli intel reports note that Iranian leaders have been pressuring Hezbollah leaders to launch attacks against Israel. Various Iranian military commanders have made numerous visits to meet with Hezbollah leaders in both Lebanon and also the Syrian capital of Damascus.
Indicator #3. = Hamas Drive-by Terror Strike
Hamas leadership in the Gaza Strip claimed responsibility for a terror attack in the West Bank where 4 Israelis were shot dead in a drive-by shooting.
Indicator #4. = Hezbollah Troop Movements
All of Hezbollah’s full-time troop forces are now at forward positions along the border with Israel in violation of UN agreements.
Indicator #5. = Hexbollah Reserve Call Up
Hezbollah has issued a call to duty for all of its part-time troop reserves.
Indicator #6. = Hezbollah Commando Forces Positioning
Hezbollah has placed its entire Commando Forces into special ‘strike’ positions for:
a. amphibious beach landings rapidly moving inland into central Israel
b. commando rapid strike forces from the border into northern Galilee
Indicator #6. Iranian officers activities
The Iranian commander of its “al Qods” (Jerusalem) Brigade – foreign division for Iraq, Gaza and the Palestinian Authority has spent the last 12 days in Damascus (since 8/19)
Along with the chief general of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps conducting War Councils with Hezbollah and Syrian officers.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Lisason Field Commander assigned to Hezbollah is Hassan Mahdavi. According to western intelligence sources, he has been shuttling around the region monitoring events in Lebanon, meeting with Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah. He has reportedly pressured Nasrallah to order a large scale surprise attack against Israel as part of Iran’s strategic response to President Obama’s attempt to forge a Mideast peace agreement from the current peace talks in Washington.
Hezbollah’s chief, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah is reported by Western intelligence sources to be nearing a decision on when and where his forces should strike initially. Reports indicate he has been somewhat reluctant to strike, in part because he detests the idea of being an Iranian puppet doing Iran’s bidding. At the same time however, one of Iran’s primary selling points for persuading Nasrallah to go ahead and attack is the notion of the honor and glory of initiating a war that takes back Jerusalem and destroys Israel. In Islamic understanding there would be great glory and prestige in being the leader which obtains the victory.
The Hezbollah chief is not the only one being lobbied by the Iranians. Iranian officials are also lobbying other Shiite groups in Lebanon that are rivals to Hezbollah. Such lobbying efforts are urging the factions to unite together in common cause against the enemy and to also remain united to greet Iran’s President under a common battle flag of Hezbollah, when Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad makes a state visit to Beirut, Lebanon later in September. Debka.com reports its sources understand the visit is tentatively scheduled for September 10-12 during Israel’s holiday period. It is believed the trip is designed to be a victory trip, celebrating the recapture of Jerusalem and the destruction of Israel.
Tehran’s war goal is intended to not only destroy Israel and recapture Jerusalem but to also strike at American prestige and standing in the world of geo-politics. Iranian leaders gauge that a Israel’s destruction will result in a humiliation of America and those Arab leaders which have aligned with America. It would underscore the impotence of America
and point out Obama’s incompetence as a leader. Arab nations would question the wisdom of aligning themselves with American foreign policy.
The Iranian war strategy is also timed to launch a civil war within Iraq in order to install a puppet government subordinate and subservient to Iran, much like Hezbollah. Iran has been waiting for U.S. combat forces to exit Iraq in order to more easily accomplish the mission. At the same time, an Iranian take-over by its proxy Shiites in Iraq would serve as a historic parallel to the world portraying America as having suffered a defeat equal to its withdrawal and defeat in Vietnam.
Hezbollah has also set up a liason for joint command of forces with Syria. This arrangement will enable Syria to remain abreast of the battlefield situation and provide strategic support as needed. We’ll have more the battlefield strategies in separate A-O Report coverage.
Meanwhile, Iran is fully prepared for any Israeli air strikes targeting Iranian nuclear faclities. Iranian strategy calls for a quick response with swift missile strike counter-attacks designed to level Israeli cities and take out key targets in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and other Arab targets in the Persian Gulf as well as American bases in the region. Iran intends to confront U.S. naval forces in the region as opportunities allow. Such moves would likely result in Iran sealing off the Strait of Hormuz. In doing so, such a development would halt the flow of 40% of the world’s oil shipments from the Persian Gulf. Such a development will spark a skyrocketing of oil prices and refined products such as gasoline and diesel fuel.
Our A-O Report analysis expects that Hezbollah will not launch any attacks until after the Ramadan period concludes on Friday night. It may coincide with the final night feast on Friday night. Such an attack at the end of “International al-Qods Day” would still have significant symbolism for the Muslim world without violating Islamic law concerning Ramadan itself. With that in mind, we anticipate that by American time zones, word of an attack would not begin to be picked up by U.S. news media until mid to late Friday afternoon at the earliest.
We’re more inclined to think it militarily prudent to wait until the eve of the Jewish holiday of Rosh Hashanah on September 8 for the launch of an attack. This date would give Hezbollah the cover of a new moon to allow amphibious commando landings a better likelihood for success without premature discovery that a moonlit night might afford. A Rosh Hashanah attack might also provide a better element of surprise as it would catch the Jewish nation in a bind as it tries to celebrate the arrival of a Jewish New Year.
An alternative date for a surprise attack would be the high Jewish holy day of Yom Kippur which comes on September 18. Such an attack would not be the first time Israel was attacked on Yom Kippur. Back in 1973, Egypt and Syria launched a sneak attack on Israel triggering what is now often times referred to as the “Yom Kippur War” of 1973.
Would Iran, Hezbollah and Syria opt for a second Yom Kippur War? It might well be a possible “back up” date should the situations for September 3 (al Qods Day) or September 8 (Rosh Hashanah) not be favorable for an attack.
At the moment, given the indicators we’ve noted, we’d place the likelihood for an attack
by Hezbollah to be at probably 70%.
A final note of caution is appropriate, as always in such cases. God is sovereign and can quite easily halt and prevent Hezbollah and Iran from doing anything that does not fit with God’s prophetic time line. Therefore, if a war does not mesh with God’s prophetic timeline, there will be no attack. Some way, some how, God will see to it that an attack does not take place, if the timing does not mesh with the Divine timeline and God’s will.
There are some prophecy watchers who are convinced that Rosh Hashanah of 2011 is THE time when God’s timeline kicks off – including at that time, the Rapture of the Church. At The A-O Report, we distance ourselves from any attempts to peg a precise date for the Rapture of the Church but we do acknowledge that various Rapture timing theories involving various Jewish festivals and feasts provide intriguing reasons for such theories and acknowledge the possibilities exist that one of those theories may be correct.
Even so, we prefer to keep an open mind and anticipate His Return for the Church could come at any time, any day of the year.
The A-O Report will provide ongoing updates of the Mideast war situation when urgent developments warrant. Some of our updates may post to the public section of our website while other postings may be reserved to the Donor’s section and available only to those who donate to The A-O Report. Either way, stay tuned for continuing coverage of the situation