Next War Fronts: Syria, Iran?
Next War Fronts: Syria, Iran?
Special A-O News Analysis
by Richard Coombes
[Posted 9:30 pm eastern time zone on 7-12-6]
Israel is facing a situation that could easily develop into a three front war as the Hezbollah war could trigger Syrian military involvement. If that happens, Iran could also declare war on Israel because Syria and Iran have mutual defense treaties. That would make 4 war fronts, and most likely a 5th would be the West Bank which until now has remained relatively quiet. However late word as we finish this article is that the Galilee valley is now under artillery bombardment from Hezbollah, and Israelis everywhere are heading for bomb-shelters. Late word from Israel is that the atmosphere in the country is that of WAR and a dark sense of foreboding that things are going to become ugly and only get worse before they get better.
Meanwhile...let's understand why Israel is bombing parts of Lebanon not under Hezbollah control.
Israel is already holding the government of Lebanon responsible for the actions of Hezbollah, but Lebanon's weak miltary is not match for Hezbollah, by itself.
Because of this blame game, Israel feels justified in bombing and scaring the daylights out of the Lebanese government to add more pressure to its leadership for its assistance in the release of the 2 kidnapped soldiers now in the hands of Hezbollah. Ideally, Israel would like the Lebanese army to assist in a joint two-front campaign to squeeze Hezbollah to destruction and intimidate Syria.
We're not sure that such an extensive military action will intimidate Syria to stay out of the fray. Indeed, if Hezbollah is seriously threatened with massive destruction, Syria, and indeed Iran will feel compelled to rush to Hezbollah's assistance because of all the large sums of money, equipment and time invested in building up the Hezbollah militia.
Late word from our Israeli sources as we post this article ... is that the Lebanese army is now moving forces southwards. It is possible that Israeli actions have spurred the Lebanese army into acting jointly to attack Hezbollah from both the front and the rear making Hezbollah's survival only a question of time and raising the likelihood of Syria and Iran entering the war.
The whole idea of Syria and Iran fronting support for Hezbollah in the first place was to trigger a "proxy" war with Israel that would bleed Israel down to the point where Syria and Iran could easily step in and crush Israel, or so their strategic thinking plan is concluding such a scenario.
Their thinking is that 7,000 fairly sophisticated missiles and rockets with enough range to destroy most of Israel's industrial production will cripple Israel economically and militarily to the point where Israel can be easily conquered by a united Islamic alliance of nations.
According to numerous Israeli sources, we can likely expect a major Hezbollah missile attack soon against Israeli population and industrial centers as well as military installations, if the fighting continues to escalate and spiral out of control as it now is apparently doing.
As we finish this article, reliable sources indicate that Iran's equivalent of a national security advisor has rushed by air to Syria to engage in high level discussions with Syria's President Asad to discuss strategy. No doubt, the talk of entering the fighting will be at the top of the list for discussion.
Because of this, we think there is a highly significant probability that things are going to get worse before they get better, but we're not inclined to believe that this is the beginning of the Gog-Magog war. At least we don't yet think so. We would need to see strong signs of Turkish involvement against Israel and we think that is highly unlikely. While its possible that Russia is the Magog nation and not Turkey, we also see no imminent signs of Russian involvement in the conflict either, but the situation is fluid and so volatile, things can turn quickly.
Our advice: Keep a sharp, sharp watch on the news coverage for at least the next 24 to 48 hours.
Added after posting -- SYRIA AND IRAN MILITARY GO TO HIGH ALERT
Late word indicates Syrian army prepared for action, merely waiting for orders.
Special A-O News Analysis
by Richard Coombes
[Posted 9:30 pm eastern time zone on 7-12-6]
Israel is facing a situation that could easily develop into a three front war as the Hezbollah war could trigger Syrian military involvement. If that happens, Iran could also declare war on Israel because Syria and Iran have mutual defense treaties. That would make 4 war fronts, and most likely a 5th would be the West Bank which until now has remained relatively quiet. However late word as we finish this article is that the Galilee valley is now under artillery bombardment from Hezbollah, and Israelis everywhere are heading for bomb-shelters. Late word from Israel is that the atmosphere in the country is that of WAR and a dark sense of foreboding that things are going to become ugly and only get worse before they get better.
Meanwhile...let's understand why Israel is bombing parts of Lebanon not under Hezbollah control.
Israel is already holding the government of Lebanon responsible for the actions of Hezbollah, but Lebanon's weak miltary is not match for Hezbollah, by itself.
Because of this blame game, Israel feels justified in bombing and scaring the daylights out of the Lebanese government to add more pressure to its leadership for its assistance in the release of the 2 kidnapped soldiers now in the hands of Hezbollah. Ideally, Israel would like the Lebanese army to assist in a joint two-front campaign to squeeze Hezbollah to destruction and intimidate Syria.
We're not sure that such an extensive military action will intimidate Syria to stay out of the fray. Indeed, if Hezbollah is seriously threatened with massive destruction, Syria, and indeed Iran will feel compelled to rush to Hezbollah's assistance because of all the large sums of money, equipment and time invested in building up the Hezbollah militia.
Late word from our Israeli sources as we post this article ... is that the Lebanese army is now moving forces southwards. It is possible that Israeli actions have spurred the Lebanese army into acting jointly to attack Hezbollah from both the front and the rear making Hezbollah's survival only a question of time and raising the likelihood of Syria and Iran entering the war.
The whole idea of Syria and Iran fronting support for Hezbollah in the first place was to trigger a "proxy" war with Israel that would bleed Israel down to the point where Syria and Iran could easily step in and crush Israel, or so their strategic thinking plan is concluding such a scenario.
Their thinking is that 7,000 fairly sophisticated missiles and rockets with enough range to destroy most of Israel's industrial production will cripple Israel economically and militarily to the point where Israel can be easily conquered by a united Islamic alliance of nations.
According to numerous Israeli sources, we can likely expect a major Hezbollah missile attack soon against Israeli population and industrial centers as well as military installations, if the fighting continues to escalate and spiral out of control as it now is apparently doing.
As we finish this article, reliable sources indicate that Iran's equivalent of a national security advisor has rushed by air to Syria to engage in high level discussions with Syria's President Asad to discuss strategy. No doubt, the talk of entering the fighting will be at the top of the list for discussion.
Because of this, we think there is a highly significant probability that things are going to get worse before they get better, but we're not inclined to believe that this is the beginning of the Gog-Magog war. At least we don't yet think so. We would need to see strong signs of Turkish involvement against Israel and we think that is highly unlikely. While its possible that Russia is the Magog nation and not Turkey, we also see no imminent signs of Russian involvement in the conflict either, but the situation is fluid and so volatile, things can turn quickly.
Our advice: Keep a sharp, sharp watch on the news coverage for at least the next 24 to 48 hours.
Added after posting -- SYRIA AND IRAN MILITARY GO TO HIGH ALERT
Late word indicates Syrian army prepared for action, merely waiting for orders.
posted by shummer60 at Wednesday, July 12, 2006
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