Wednesday, December 05, 2007

US Rocks World On Iran's Nukes

US Rocks World On Iran's Nukes


NIE Triggers US Policy Shift

On Iran's Nuclear Weapons Program

The A-O Report will be providing follow up analysis on these

dramatic changes in the next few hours and days ahead.

US Intel Believes Iran Stopped Nuke Weapons Program in 2003

President Bush's National Security Advisor, Stephen Hadley revealed on Monday that Iran halted it's nuclear weapons program in 2003. Hadley's revelation came as the result of a comprehensive, coordidinated review of intelligence data by all of America's intelligence agencies and not just the Central Intelligence Agency. The data was compiled into a report called the National Intelligence Estimate.

The report concludes that Iran halted it's nuclear program in 2003 and the program remains on hold. For some experts, the conclusion comes as no surprise, because CIA estimates all along had strongly believed that Iran was still years away from achieving a nuclear weapon's production capability. The report does note that Iran could reconstitute its nuclear weapons program and could develope a nuclear bomb somewhere between 2010 and 2015.

This latest assessment comes as the White House is urgently pushing for new and stiffer sanctions against Iran. In light of the new NIE report, analysts believe that Russia and China will point to the NIE report and conclude that there is no need for urgency in slapping new sanctions on Iran and will not join in voting for new harsher UN Security Council sanctions which could hurt their own trading policies with Iran. For more on the report itself. LINK here. Still more details, LINK here.

President Bush Says Iran Still Dangerous


In light of the National Intelligence Estimate new findings reporting that new evidence indicates Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003, President Bush held a White House press conference on Tuesday to convey to the nation and the world that Iran remains a dangerous nation and the diplomacy must continue to ensure that Iran does not develop nuclear weapons in the future.

The President noted that the Iranians continue to develop a uranium enrichment program which is the central core of a nuclear weapons program. Bush noted that there is nothing to stop the Iranians from re-constituting a nuclear weapons program and for that reason diplomacy through the United Nations must move forward including sanctions. The president made it clear that he believes new sanctions should be adopted and measures taken to prevent Iran from acquiring full ability and know-how to make nuclear weapons.

The President also noted that military options are still on the table including the use of military force if necessary. The President said that: "Iran was dangerous, is dangerous and will continue to be dangerous." He noted that while Iran's nuclear weapons program was halted in 2003, a new regime under Mahmoud Ahmadinejad took over in 2005 and has a mindset for nuclear weapons development. Bush implied that the diplomatic sanctions applied since 2005 have prevented Ahmadinejad's regime from moving forward to reconstitute it's nuclear program. For more on the President's remarks, LINK here.

Israel Believes Iran Still Has Nuke Weapons Program

Israel's Defense Minister, Ehud Barak came out Tuesday stating that Iran continues with efforts to produce nuclear weapons. His statement contradicts the latest US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) which was made public on Monday stating the Iran halted its nuclear program in 2003 and has not reconstituted it, but does continue with efforts to enrich uranium, the most necessary component of a nuclear weapons program.

Barak did not deny that the Iranians stopped the program in 2003, but asserted that Iran has since re-started the program. Israeli intelligence has recently concluded that Iran could produce a bomb as early as 2009 or 2010.

Barak, speaking out on Israeli radio stated: ""It is possible that this is correct, but I do not think that it is our place to make assessments about US [policy]. It is our responsibility to ensure that the correct things are done. Constantly speaking about the Iranian threat, as we have done recently, is not the right thing to do… words do not stop missiles. .. There are differences in the assessments of different organizations in the world about this, and only time will tell who is right."

Israel's Prime Minister Olmert noted on Tuesday that he was briefed on the NIE report last week after the Annapolis Peace Summit, when he met the next day with President Bush at the White House. The NIE report will no doubt put something of a distance between Israel and the United States over the Iranian issue, as Israeli intelligence believes there is urgency in the Iranian threat and the NIE report reduces the sense of urgency. It may well be that with such distances, Israel will feel compelled to act alone, militarily against Iran. For more on Israel's reaction to the NIE report.

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