War Analysis Updated As Of 7-28-6
War Analysis Updated As Of 7-28-6
Overall Assessment
We've been trying to figure out what Israel is doing and it seems as thought it is becoming a full-time occupation for us, beyond normal news coverage. We'll begin our analsysis update by examining what Israel's goals are as stated by the Israeli government.
Israel's stated war goals are as follows:
#1. stopping the current rocket attacks
#2 .making sure that there will be no more rocket attacks will resume.
#3. accomplishing the first two points with a minimum of casualties.
#4. accomplishing the first 3 points without occupying more hostile territory or counter-insurgency operations.
All of these are understandably logical and commendable goals. We think the problem is that Israel cannot achieve all 4. We think they can achieve points one, two and four, but not without far more casualties than Israel seems willing to accept. Another aspect is that to accomplish victory will require a full invasion of ALL of Lebanon, including the northern regions of Lebanon.
Keep in mind, the larger and longer range, heavy rockets capable of destroying Tel Aviv and Jerusalem are located in the northern regions of Lebanon in the Bekaa Valley, also thought to contain Saddam Hussein's old WMD's transferred there before the U.S. invaded Iraq in 2003. Those weapons could also be available to Hezbollah in the future, if Israel doesn't deal with them now.
In doing so, they cannot allow Hezbollah to escape to Syria or else the Hezbollah problem infects that nation and creates even more problems including the possibility of toppling the Asad government and replacing it with something far worse for larger headaches in the future.
It is now becoming clear that Hezbollah's military strategy is borrowing a page from the Japanese of World War 2 in the battles for Iwo Jima and Okinawa. The strategy is duplicated even down to the tactical elements of camouflaging Hezbollah positions from the prying eyes of the Israeli Air Force and spy satellites.
Israeli forces are now engaged in small-scale operations against entrenched Hezbollah positions. Hezbollah fortifications are well-stocked for fairly long-term operations and require little communication from the top command. Israel simply cannot safely pass by these fortifications and race forward to other locations for fear that the passing up of such positions will enable the defenders to engage in highly destructive guerilla, counter-insurgency operations against lengthening Israeli supply lines that advance deeper into Lebanon.
Israeli is counting on fulfilling out their trategic objectives by using air power, alone. Their thinking is to allow air power to eliminate the rocket threats, and destroy Hezbollah, and thereby avoid Israeli casualties and avoid occupation and counterinsurgency. Sounds good on paper as a theory. This conceptual strategy however, seems unlikely to work. If it doesn't work, Israel will have squandered its diplomatic time and still have the problem it began with. At some point, international pressure is going to become so great that Israel will be forced to stop no matter what.
Fearful Signs of Syrian Or Iranian Attacks
Israel has deployed U.S. Patriot and Israeli Arrow anti-missile defenses. These systems are not designed for defense against Hezbollah's non-ballistic rockets. They are designed for intercepting bigger missiles
like the Scuds of Syria or the Shehab missiles of Iran. The Shehab-3's can reach Israel directly from launch sites in Iran. The fact that Israel has now deployed such rockets strongly suggest that Israel now has reason to fear that Syria or Iran or both are going to widen the war directly.
Various sources in the Mideast are reporting that Syria's President has held a war council with Iran's National Security Advisor and Hezbollah's Sheik Nasrallah along with Hamas and Palestinian Jihad Islami chiefs. The war council was convened to discuss what moves should next be taken. It is thought by some analysts that this war council will likely conclude that the time is now ripe for widening the war
to a greater or lesser extent. One thing we can conclude is that Hezbollah has been given the green light to launch longer-range and heavier pay-lod rockets.
In conjunction with this development, Israel's largest circulation newspaper, Yediot Ahronot, features a big headline indicating that Syria has gone on an "Emergency Military Alert."
Our sources in Israel indicated yesterday that atmosphere in Syria has shifted dramatically in the past 48 hours to that of a "war-time" footing as it was in the 1967 and 1973 wars. It seems that Syria is expecting an outbreak of military hostilities between itself and Israel in the near future.
As we understand it from sources in the region, Syrian air crews are now sitting in their cockpits ready to taxi for takeoff on a moment's notice. This underscores Syria's readiness to fight and may well indicate that Syria and Iran are now ready to widen the war, despite public and diplomatic signals to the contrary.
Such a readiness by Syria and Iran for widening the conflict may be due to their sensing Israel's weaknesses and inability to win a war against a small non-conventional military force like Hezbollah.
Thus, they may be concluding that now is the time to strike Israel and destroy her. In other words they
may think that now is the time for Israel's destruction because Israel is to weak to be able to adequately defend herself and her leaders are too weak, to timid, and too reluctant to use nuclear weapons. We think this would be a fatal and false assumption on the part of these two nations, however, we should note that both nations are led by inexperienced but highly over-confident political leadership.
Battlefield Reports
The battle for Bint Jbeil continues. Hezbollah continues with its counter-attack efforts in and around the Lebanese village. News media reports are being distorted by IDF information suppression.. IDF maintains that more than 200 Hezbollah fighters have been killed in or near Bint Jbeil so far. Meanwhile, Israeli forces continue to stage their troops in northern Israel but only to rotate raiding troops in and out and not to engage in a wholesale invasion of the territotyr. The bulk of IDF units are in the northeastern corner of the country and the Golan Heights. Also a sizable IDF presence is being reported on along the western coastline of the Mediterranean Sea.
The rocket attacks continue, most notably of course is the introduction of what was probably an Zelzal longer-range missile or a Farjr 5 missile that struck the furthest point south in the war to date. A rocket strouck in an empty field near the town of Afoul, southeast of Haifa just before the start of the Sabbath.
Late word as we post - Israeli forces have reportedly engaged in a "tactical retreat" from Bint Jbeil and Masoud Hill and returned to Israel. Fierce fighting within southern Lebanon remains.
Overall Assessment
We've been trying to figure out what Israel is doing and it seems as thought it is becoming a full-time occupation for us, beyond normal news coverage. We'll begin our analsysis update by examining what Israel's goals are as stated by the Israeli government.
Israel's stated war goals are as follows:
#1. stopping the current rocket attacks
#2 .making sure that there will be no more rocket attacks will resume.
#3. accomplishing the first two points with a minimum of casualties.
#4. accomplishing the first 3 points without occupying more hostile territory or counter-insurgency operations.
All of these are understandably logical and commendable goals. We think the problem is that Israel cannot achieve all 4. We think they can achieve points one, two and four, but not without far more casualties than Israel seems willing to accept. Another aspect is that to accomplish victory will require a full invasion of ALL of Lebanon, including the northern regions of Lebanon.
Keep in mind, the larger and longer range, heavy rockets capable of destroying Tel Aviv and Jerusalem are located in the northern regions of Lebanon in the Bekaa Valley, also thought to contain Saddam Hussein's old WMD's transferred there before the U.S. invaded Iraq in 2003. Those weapons could also be available to Hezbollah in the future, if Israel doesn't deal with them now.
In doing so, they cannot allow Hezbollah to escape to Syria or else the Hezbollah problem infects that nation and creates even more problems including the possibility of toppling the Asad government and replacing it with something far worse for larger headaches in the future.
It is now becoming clear that Hezbollah's military strategy is borrowing a page from the Japanese of World War 2 in the battles for Iwo Jima and Okinawa. The strategy is duplicated even down to the tactical elements of camouflaging Hezbollah positions from the prying eyes of the Israeli Air Force and spy satellites.
Israeli forces are now engaged in small-scale operations against entrenched Hezbollah positions. Hezbollah fortifications are well-stocked for fairly long-term operations and require little communication from the top command. Israel simply cannot safely pass by these fortifications and race forward to other locations for fear that the passing up of such positions will enable the defenders to engage in highly destructive guerilla, counter-insurgency operations against lengthening Israeli supply lines that advance deeper into Lebanon.
Israeli is counting on fulfilling out their trategic objectives by using air power, alone. Their thinking is to allow air power to eliminate the rocket threats, and destroy Hezbollah, and thereby avoid Israeli casualties and avoid occupation and counterinsurgency. Sounds good on paper as a theory. This conceptual strategy however, seems unlikely to work. If it doesn't work, Israel will have squandered its diplomatic time and still have the problem it began with. At some point, international pressure is going to become so great that Israel will be forced to stop no matter what.
Fearful Signs of Syrian Or Iranian Attacks
Israel has deployed U.S. Patriot and Israeli Arrow anti-missile defenses. These systems are not designed for defense against Hezbollah's non-ballistic rockets. They are designed for intercepting bigger missiles
like the Scuds of Syria or the Shehab missiles of Iran. The Shehab-3's can reach Israel directly from launch sites in Iran. The fact that Israel has now deployed such rockets strongly suggest that Israel now has reason to fear that Syria or Iran or both are going to widen the war directly.
Various sources in the Mideast are reporting that Syria's President has held a war council with Iran's National Security Advisor and Hezbollah's Sheik Nasrallah along with Hamas and Palestinian Jihad Islami chiefs. The war council was convened to discuss what moves should next be taken. It is thought by some analysts that this war council will likely conclude that the time is now ripe for widening the war
to a greater or lesser extent. One thing we can conclude is that Hezbollah has been given the green light to launch longer-range and heavier pay-lod rockets.
In conjunction with this development, Israel's largest circulation newspaper, Yediot Ahronot, features a big headline indicating that Syria has gone on an "Emergency Military Alert."
Our sources in Israel indicated yesterday that atmosphere in Syria has shifted dramatically in the past 48 hours to that of a "war-time" footing as it was in the 1967 and 1973 wars. It seems that Syria is expecting an outbreak of military hostilities between itself and Israel in the near future.
As we understand it from sources in the region, Syrian air crews are now sitting in their cockpits ready to taxi for takeoff on a moment's notice. This underscores Syria's readiness to fight and may well indicate that Syria and Iran are now ready to widen the war, despite public and diplomatic signals to the contrary.
Such a readiness by Syria and Iran for widening the conflict may be due to their sensing Israel's weaknesses and inability to win a war against a small non-conventional military force like Hezbollah.
Thus, they may be concluding that now is the time to strike Israel and destroy her. In other words they
may think that now is the time for Israel's destruction because Israel is to weak to be able to adequately defend herself and her leaders are too weak, to timid, and too reluctant to use nuclear weapons. We think this would be a fatal and false assumption on the part of these two nations, however, we should note that both nations are led by inexperienced but highly over-confident political leadership.
Battlefield Reports
The battle for Bint Jbeil continues. Hezbollah continues with its counter-attack efforts in and around the Lebanese village. News media reports are being distorted by IDF information suppression.. IDF maintains that more than 200 Hezbollah fighters have been killed in or near Bint Jbeil so far. Meanwhile, Israeli forces continue to stage their troops in northern Israel but only to rotate raiding troops in and out and not to engage in a wholesale invasion of the territotyr. The bulk of IDF units are in the northeastern corner of the country and the Golan Heights. Also a sizable IDF presence is being reported on along the western coastline of the Mediterranean Sea.
The rocket attacks continue, most notably of course is the introduction of what was probably an Zelzal longer-range missile or a Farjr 5 missile that struck the furthest point south in the war to date. A rocket strouck in an empty field near the town of Afoul, southeast of Haifa just before the start of the Sabbath.
Late word as we post - Israeli forces have reportedly engaged in a "tactical retreat" from Bint Jbeil and Masoud Hill and returned to Israel. Fierce fighting within southern Lebanon remains.
posted by shummer60 at Friday, July 28, 2006
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