An Assessment of the NIE Report And The Current Situation In the Middle East

An Assessment of the NIE Report And The Current Situation In the Middle East

In Regards To Iran's Nuclear Program

(A-O Newswire) -- The NIE report assessing Iran's nuclear weapons program is proving to be a trigger for a geo-political earthquake of immense magnitude. For all practical purposes it rules out any credibility the US might have had for launching military air strikes against Iran's nuclear weapons program, because the NIE now says that no such program exists. The report carries with it enormous implications.

#1. It calls into question the credibility of the Bush administration.

#2. It rules out the need for diplomatic sanctions

#3. It gives the Iranians a green light to finish their nuclear weapons program.

#4. It prevents the Israelis from having a reasonable cause for attacking Iran

#5. It signals to Arab nations that their own their own against Iran

#6. It means Persian Gulf nations will need to cooperate with Iran to avoid destruction

#7. It gives Iran free reign to bully its neighbors

#8. It singals to other Arab nations the need for their own nuclear weapons program

#9. It creates a rift between the US and the EU because now the Europeans have been deceived and lost trade with Iran as the result of foolishing following the Bush administration.

#10. Should Israel decide to attack Iran, it would have no believeable ecuse for doing so and thus at the minimum become a world pariah or worse, come under world military attack.

#11. The implications for Iraq's problems are enormous. The pressure will grow for allowing Iran to straighten out the mess in Iraq.


There is also the question to be asked: How is it that the US intelligence community have been so wrong in its 2005 assessment and remained wrong for 2 years?

Some analysts are noting that the NIE's on any given issue can be edited by political pressures for a 'chosen' outcome. Several analysts believe this to be the case with the new NIE on Iran. In other words, the White House chose this NIE outcome for a reason, meaning that the administration has simply chosen to ignore Iran's nuclear weapons program and use the NIE to cover for a switch in policy. What that reason for a switch in policy then becomes the subject of debate. Some analysts think it is because the Bush administration is now desperate to get out of Iraq and regroup. By changing the NIE, the Administration now has a chance to work with Iran to find a compromise that will allow the Bush administration to extricate the troops from Iraq.

Indeed, the Pentagon analysts told the White House that one of the major reasons why an attack on Iran is not in the best interests of the United States is because of the Iranian threat to US forces in Iraq. Indeed, an Iranian counter-attack in Iraq would have been a debacle for US forces in Iraq much akin to the massacre of Custer's Last Stand in the Battle of the Little Bighorn. In other words, to attack Iran, US troops need to be out of Iraq. IF, we should see in the coming weeks, developments between Iran and the US involving cooperation on Iraq, then this theory will likely be proven a reality. No matter what, it seems like the Bush administration is resolved now to pass along the Iranian nuclear weapons problem to the next administration for resolution.

No matter what the reason is for the shift, one thing is clear - change is coming in US foreign policy. Every analyst in the past 48 hours who has commented has agreed with such a conclusion.